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July 2020 Economic Commentary

The first article in this quarter's newsletter is an overview of investment markets and asset class performances in the second quarter of 2020.

We reported three months ago that the first quarter of the year was exceptionally challenging. When a global health crisis triggers a global market meltdown, its unlikely to be smooth sailing. The second quarter was extraordinary for entirely different reasons. What emerged from the rubble of the market low on 23 March, was a second quarter rebound that surprised and confounded even the most ardent bulls.

Lessons from 1998

The second article takes readers back to 1998. Not to reminisce about popular girl band the Spice Girls, but to provide a parable of sorts about a sound investment strategy. It’s a timely reminder that building an investment strategy based on data and evidence cannot win every single year, but it does tilt the odds in your favour of achieving long term investment success.

Whilst the markets have recovered significant ground over the last three months, the catalyst that undermined them in the first place (Covid-19) remains untamed around the globe. Given that, it continues to be a risk factor that could yet have more influence over markets in the weeks and months ahead. However, for the time being at least, markets are looking past this uncertainty towards the prospect of better times ahead.

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Lyfords 2nd quarter newsletter