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Autumn 2019 Economic Commentary

In January we signalled that the 2019 year had started in promising fashion, and we are very happy to now be able to report that this good start extended to cover at least the first three months of the year.

In the accompanying update, the investment market review reflects on some of the main factors that positively influenced markets over the quarter (i.e. lower global interest rates), as well as some of the factors that the markets largely chose to ignore (i.e. weakening growth and a still unresolved Brexit deal). It also contains a brief helicopter view of the performance of the global residential property market, which might be of particular interest to residential property investors.

In the feature article, we explain why selling during down markets should be avoided if at all possible. Amongst the many reasons why is because we know of no reliable mechanism to accurately forecast the future twists and turns of markets, and the worst place of all to draw investment strategy from is the media. More often our process will be to recommend buying when market prices fall. As consumers this is exactly the approach we take when retailers discount their prices on Boxing Day; we just need to get better at applying the same thinking when financial assets are also temporarily available at a discount.

When the dust settled on the first three months of 2019, our diversified model portfolios achieved their highest quarterly returns for seven years. Although this tells us next to nothing about how markets might behave for the remainder of the year it is, unambiguously, an excellent start.

Click on the image below to view the full newsletter in pdf format:
Lyfords autumn2019